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September 12, 2005

Monday Musing: Farm Subsidies, Ways of Life, and Poverty

Iraq, Katrina, and the war on terror (or is it now "war on Islamist extremism"?), displaced the G8 summit’s and Live 8’s stated focus on poverty in the Third World, especially in Africa. Perennial problems never bring a sense of urgency, only occasional bursts of concern which then quickly subside like one's conscience when others stop looking.  Of course, many do work on the issues regularly and in sustained ways. And by and large, global poverty has been on the decline—largely due to rapid growth in India and China.

The bombings in London among other things managed to abort what could have been a fruitful discussion of global poverty, even if both the G8’s agenda and Live 8 had cast it in terms that avoided perhaps one of the deeper causes of global poverty—agricultural subsidies for farmers in the developed world—in favor of solutions that could be categorized under bourgeois charitablism, even if some of these have merit. 

The link between farm subsidies in the West and poverty in the Third World is fairly straightforward, even if many don’t quite see the linkage. It’s no secret that farms subsidies in the West are enormous. Excluding subsidies in the form of research and development, food inspection and welfare support for poor citizens (mostly, the food stamp program in the US), subsidies in the OECD averaged 30% of farm receipts, meaning 30 cents of each dollar of revenue from farming in the West comes from state transfers, on average. Nearly, US$290 billion was spent by OECD member in direct support to farmers.

The funny-disturbing figure in these discussions is $2.50 a day in subsidies per cow in Europe; compare that with this one--nearly three in four people on the African continent live on less than $2 a day. And the connection is more than coincidental.

Subsidies, especially on these scales, encourage considerable over-production, allowing farmers, or agro-business, to effectively dump food in poor economies. (Yes, people are made poor because there’s too much food in the world.) Local farmers are unable to compete with the (subsidy distorted) prices of imported foodstuffs. In the last decade, major crops, such as sugar and cotton, have seen a fall in prices by as much as 40%-50%. Sugar subsidies, for example, make it difficult for Mozambican producers to compete with European or American ones. (Moreover, quotas and tariffs in the West add additional costs to poorer producers when they try to export to the West.) Commodities prices fall below the costs of production in many locales. In most of these places, local farmers are among the poorest; pushed out of the market by subsidies, they are often unable to gain a livelihood. And more than 2 billion people on this planet depend on agriculture for their livelihood.

Delegations from poorer countries to talks on trade regularly point this out, and politicians and trade representatives in the West are hardly ignorant of the dynamic. Nor are they so callous as to be indifferent to poverty on this scale, or at least I’d like to think that they are not.

Occasionally, someone makes the case that a nation doesn’t really want its food supply to be at the whim of global markets, and subsidies insure that it preserves the capacity to produce at home. Others treat it as a way of having their nation's farmers command a larger share of the world’s food market. Of course, it’s unlikely that agriculture in the West would disappear without subsidies and further impoverishing millions in the world’s bottom tiers is a rather sickening price to pay for market share.

For most governments in the Western world, electoral politics makes it difficult to end farm subsidies. Rural, agriculture-dependent populations may be small, but they are a strategic voting block who feels the issue intensely. Moreover, the rest of us benefit from cheap food. Even if it is the case that very large producers, and not small farmers, benefit most, the symbolic power of the Japanese rice producer or the French farmer (or the American one, for that matter) is considerable.

Not too long ago, I was having a discussion with a friend who has worked for a long time in developmental economics. Her work mostly concerns Africa, and she’s extremely critical of the subsidy system in the West, but entirely for the havoc it wreaks on the poorest in the world. But she asked a question: what's wrong if a society tries to maintain a way of life for cultural reasons? (The Japanese and French often give this answer when criticized for providing lavish assistance to their farmers.)

And make no mistake, we are taking of ways of life here and not merely support for a job. Farming brings with it more than simply income. Various aspects of life are tied to it: extended family structures, communities, schools, and broad elements of what we would call culture. My grandmother, a small farmer in the rural backwaters of India, continued to work the land into her 80s, long after her children did reasonably well.

When entire ways of life are under threat, people do make strong demands on their societies and governments that these ways of life be maintained. When the company-towns along what became the rust belt (and is now post-rust belt) fell into economic distress, others felt the pull of their demands to have their communities preserved, and preserved through the maintenance of the companies that were the integrating and constituting force of the communities and culture.  The reaction is understandable.

There are two objections. First, even if we choose to help maintain these modes of life, there is no good reason why we should permit the consequence of the impoverishment of millions. But second and perhaps more important is the fact that we don’t owe others the maintenance of their way of life. This is as true of the farmers in the Third World as in the first. (I do think that we should provide assistance to those dislocated in our economy so that they can adjust themselves to new circumstances.)

But it’s clear that despite the reduction in some farm subsidies over the last decade or so, farmers in the Third World will not be enjoying a leveled economic playing field anytime soon. And as much as many people in the West want the end of subsidies, the strategic voting position of farmers makes it unlikely that subsidies will disappear, though some Western societies have managed to get rid of them. Perhaps then it’s time to focus energies on how to keep much of the food produced in the First World off of local markets in the Third World, or to allow tariffs that raise the price of Western foodstuff to market levels. But it is most certainly time to discuss how something this seemingly innocuous is immiserating some of the world's more vulnerable in ways that are not about making us feel good and which also take into account that (at least some) farmers in the West have more at stake than their income.

Posted by Robin Varghese at 12:10 AM | Permalink

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Damn good show, Robin. You've explained something that a lot more people should know about, and I myself wasn't clear on until I read your piece. The figures are quite shocking, really: 30 cents of every dollar a farmer earns is from the gov't? $2.50 per cow? Wow.

I benefit from a similar subsidy in NYC: rent control. I happen to live in a much-coveted rent-controlled apartment, and I am aware of how unfair it is. (Yes, apartment seekers in NYC do follow the obituaries; yes, divorced couples here do continue to live together for years for real-estatish reasons; and, yes, I did get married because my wife is the one who had the rent-controlled apartment.) But like farm subsidies, rent-controls are a political hot-button no one wants to go near. But I feel better: at least this subsidy isn't causing poverty 10,000 miles away!

Posted by: Abbas Raza | Sep 12, 2005 12:52:56 AM

Well thought out, Robin. The Economist has been on about this for years. Coming from Wisconsin I as do, I'm curious as to what small American farmers, who have had tough times, think. When the pork goes to giant agribusinesses, the pattern becomes clearer.

Posted by: J. M. Tyree | Sep 12, 2005 5:23:39 PM

There is the fact that agro-business reaps most of the largess, but I suppose what I did want to get at is the fact that we lose something when we think of farmers, or farming, as merely a source of income. And why it's not such an easy thing for people who can't sustain themselves economically farming to give it up and start becoming, say computer programers.

Clearly, pushing millions into poverty can't be accepted as a side effect. But we still need to recognize that entire ways of life are at stake.

Posted by: Robin | Sep 12, 2005 6:05:38 PM

Don't forget, programming is a rather easily outsourced job!

Posted by: Abbas Raza | Sep 12, 2005 7:16:34 PM

"Don't forget, programming is a rather easily outsourced job!"

So is farming.

Posted by: Robin | Sep 13, 2005 8:33:31 AM

Discussions of farm subsidies invariably are focused on symptoms rather than root causes. Additionally, the argument against subsidies is wholly dependent upon neo-liberal economic assumptions. That is, subsidies are the sole cause of overproduction which is then dumped on Less Developed nations. This argument requires ignoring many complexities, particularly the complexities of world trade, especially the structure and scale of the traders.

Number one on a list of causes is the pricing system of most farm commodities. In every case the price is fixed by an oligopsony based on their needs rather than supply and demand, which is assumed to be operating. In nominal dollars farm prices have tended to remain flat. In adjusted dollars, farm prices have fallen.

Farmers in the U.S. then have no real choice but, they face two possibilities. Produce more or get out. This reality would be operational regardless of subsidies.

Worldwide, farmers are struggling to exist. If all U.S. farmers were to exit farming, the plight of farmers in less developed countries would still be in the hands of the powerful few who set global prices. A dictator might be able to afford benevolence, to expect the same from unfettered multinationals is to expect pigs to fly.

Posted by: John Bunting | Sep 15, 2005 11:58:47 AM

Two points:

1. Monopsony boards across the developing world have been steadily undone, or have been removing price controls. And by and large to the extent they operate they leaned towards lower prices--which is the source of the problem--since lower food prices increases the real wage of the urban poor. (Yes, someone should net the poverty effect by also considering what share of the urban poor would be pushed into poverty by rising food prices; my hunch is not that much.) They were legacies of a time when many places thought squeezing the country side via monopsony boards, price controls, etc. were a way of generating enough surplus for import-substitute industrialization. Eventually they learned that squeezing the country side meant killing effective demand for new manufacturing sectors. And now for different reasons the loss of income result from, yes, subsidized competitors also kills of much of the local market for other goods.

2. I don't see how the fact that much of the trade in agriculture is done by multinationals (and apart from a few commodities, I haven't seen any figures to suggest that this is true across a broad range of crops) . . . I don't see how that fact introduces a complexity which goes against the arguments for undoing subsidies, or at least making them smarter.

The bulk of subsidies go to large scale corporate agro-business, since subsidies are largely based on output. Subsidies allow MNCs to dump food at prices that are below relative scarcity and which no longer reflect opportunity costs. Subsidies are what allow them to seize markety share and set prices, and do so in a way that displaces poor farmers in the Third World.

The role of the small farmer is something else--the electoral basis of maintaining the system. And what I was trying to get at is that these farmers in the West do have concerns that merit a lot of sympathy.

Posted by: Robin | Sep 15, 2005 1:08:36 PM

On point two:

World trade in agriculture is a matter of scale. No one goes halfway round the world for a cup of sugar. At the scale of world agricultural trade, risk must be minimized. Control of price by a handful of players reduces risk to those players and is the prime cause for subsidies.

However, if subsidies are eliminated without addressing price over production will occur. A perfect example of this is milk production in New Zealand. In the mid – 80’s subsidies were eliminated entirely. Production became concentrated in the hands of fewer surviving farms. By 1990 production took off. Current production is more than double that of 1990. All of that production increase has been exported.

The U.S. became a net dairy importing nation in 1995. We are the prime customer for NZ dairy products, without which the U.S. milk price would have to be higher. Meanwhile, traditional dairy regions in the U.S. look like war zones. Meth labs proliferate on the defunct farms. Hardly progress. Nevertheless a perfect example of the disconnect between subsidies and production.

While it is true that the bulk of subsidies go to the largest farms and that some of them are incorporated, virtually all are family owned and expanded as a means to survive.

Personally, I am not in favor of subsidies. I simply see them as a symptom of a larger problem.

Sympathy, I suspect, is the last thing small farmers need. They need to be respected as a resilient, prudent means of supplying food in a world offering new surprises on a regular basis. Most everyone, if put to the test, understands it is unwise to put all eggs in one basket. That is the end result of concentration in farming.

Posted by: John Bunting | Sep 15, 2005 9:53:52 PM

I'm a little confused, John. I don't see how subsidies dissuade overproduction. In fact, holding demand constant, I don't see how they would do anything other than push prices down in the quest for market share; no profit without sale and all.

Market forces may encourage more production--as in the NZ dairy case--but as you point out this appears a product of economies of scale that come with size.

Farmers would certainly produce more with rising prices, but more competitors--in this case local third world farmers who can make a living--also enter. Farmers may, as you suggested earlier also produce more with falling prices, in order to keep total revenue at tolerable levels, but margins would fall, and most small farmers would be stressed further. There are physical limits to providing more.

The ADMs and Cargill's, enjoying the scale economies they do, would do just fine, of course, in their quest to corner the world soy, corn and other crops.

And as for rural communities decimated by falling dairy prices, a decent society would help the dislocated, socially insure the economically displaced, etc., but we (and most everyone else on this planet) are a far way away from that position.

Finally, with respected to small farmers remaining resilient . . . perhaps in sense that small farmers as a category will survive. As one whose family has been in small farming for a millenium, albeit in a much poorer and removed corner of the world, most of they are hitting the other side of survival as a class of producers.

Posted by: Robin | Sep 16, 2005 2:02:57 PM

I can only speculate on how subsidies “dissuade overproduction”. My guess is that with subsidies, many farms which are only marginally efficient can stay in business. Their ROI is acceptable to the owners. Eliminate subsidies and prices will go up but, not enough to keep the marginal farms in business. They will be then be bought out by the determined, production oriented types and production will increase. That appears to be the case wherever subsidies have been reduced or eliminated.

As for “more competitors--in this case local third world farmers who can make a living--also enter.”, I’m not sure what you mean by “local farmers”? My observation is that it commonly is a return to feudalism.

A case in point is governor of the Brazilian state of Matos Grosso is Blairo Maggi, the owner of the Maggi group. He is known as rei da soja -- the Soybean King because, if memory serves me correctly he has 400,000 acres of soy. His operation is truly impressive until you realize that soy production is the biggest driver of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.

At the moment he can beat American production cost. Brazilian production is steadily increasing regardless of soy price. However, if you look at the production cost the biggest difference between Brazil’s cost vs U.S. is land cost.

I have heard the theory that subsidies have had the effect of driving up farm land cost. Take away the subsidies and the U.S. land prices will crash and with it the price of U.S. crops.

Since I have never heard anyone who is opposed to subsidies propose limits to production, I suspect that the originators of the idea simply want cheaper prices. They have roped in those who genuinely care, with a proposal which sounds logical but, is fraught with unintended results.

My own personal belief is that global agriculture requires cheap oil. The concept of transporting vegetables and other food which are primarily water round the world is absurd. Additionally, as has been shown with “mad cow”, international food trade can be brought to a screeching halt.

Food is best when it is regional or local. We only have a thin layer of topsoil with which to sustain life. It should be respected and cared for. Care cannot be abstract. Care needs to be practical and for things at hand. If we head in that direction subsidies will disappear on their own.

A decent society would first want to know where their food comes from. A decent society would value important things and not simply join in a race to the bottom. From my own observation I must say that children raised on a traditional American family farm are an important economic benefit to all of society.

I am aware there are small farmers throughout the world who struggle beyond what is humanly acceptable to merely survive. Economics in the final analysis is not about theories or numbers, it is about how the pie is sliced.

"Each person," wrote John Rawls in “A Theory of Justice”, "possesses an inviolability founded on justice that even the welfare of society as a whole cannot override." The world ignores that at its own peril.


Posted by: John Bunting | Sep 16, 2005 11:12:34 PM

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